Forecasting

thinking Why forecast? Features Common to all Forecasts Conditions in the away will continue in the future R atomic number 18ly perfect Forecasts for groups tend to be more than accurate than forecasts for individuals Forecast accuracy declines as meter visible horizon increases Elements of a Good Forecast Timely Accurate sure (should work consistently) Forecast expressed in meaningful units Communicated in writing Simple to picture and use Steps in Forecasting Process Determine decision of the forecast cast out a time horizon Select prognostic technique Gather and test the appropriate data construct the forecast Monitor the forecast Types of Forecasts Qualitative o judgement and opinion o Sales force o Consumer surveys o Delphi technique Quantitati ve o Regression and correlational statistics (associative) o Time series Forecasts Based on Time sequent publication Data What is Time serial? Components (behavior) of Time Series data o kink o Cycle o Seasonal o Irregular o Random variations Naïve Methods Naïve Forecast uses a single previous pass judgment of a time series as the basis of a forecast.

[pic] Techniques for Averaging What is the purpose of averaging? Common Averagi ng Techniques o pitiable Aver! ages o exponential smoothing Moving Average [pic] Exponential Smoothing [pic] Techniques for Trend Linear Trend Equation [pic] [pic] Curvilinear Trend Equation [pic] [pic] Techniques for Seasonality What is seasonality? What are seasonal relatives or indexes? How seasonal indexes are...If you want to get a enough essay, order it on our website: OrderCustomPaper.com

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